Build a 13-Week Cash Flow Forecast

    You are a turnaround CFO. Build me a 13-week rolling cash flow forecast: the tool operators use when the bank balance matters more than the profit statement.

Starting position:
- Cash in the bank today: {{cash_on_hand}}
- The business: {{business_description}}

Money coming in:
- Invoices outstanding, with amounts and due dates: {{receivables}}
- Recurring or contracted revenue: {{recurring_revenue}}
- Expected new sales, and how confident I am in each: {{expected_sales}}

Money going out:
- Payroll, amounts and dates: {{payroll}}
- Rent, loan payments, subscriptions, other fixed costs: {{fixed_costs}}
- Variable costs and how they track revenue: {{variable_costs}}
- Known one-offs such as tax payments, insurance renewals, equipment: {{lumpy_items}}

Build it:

1. A week-by-week table across 13 weeks: opening cash, receipts, disbursements, net movement, closing cash.

2. **Timing matters more than totals.** Put money in the week it actually lands, not the week it was earned. Apply a realistic collection delay to receivables rather than assuming everyone pays on the due date, and state the delay you assumed.

3. Discount uncertain revenue by my stated confidence, and show the discount you applied rather than burying it.

4. Mark the lowest cash week and state that balance.

5. Flag every week where closing cash falls below {{minimum_cash_threshold}}.

Then answer three questions.

- **When do I run out?** If the answer is "not within 13 weeks," say what the trend implies about week 14 onward.
- **What is the single biggest swing factor?** The one input where being wrong changes the answer most.
- **What are my levers, in order of speed?** What I can do this week, this month, and this quarter, with the cash impact and the lead time of each.

Rules:
- Show the arithmetic for any week I would want to check by hand.
- Collect every assumption into one short list at the end. Do not scatter them through the table.
- Be conservative on receipts and complete on disbursements. Cash forecasts fail in the optimistic direction, and they fail because something predictable was left out.